Da Gong

Da Gong

"Lecturer of Data Analytics at SUNY Geneseo"

Publications


Economic Impacts of China’s Zero-COVID Policies
(with Zhuocheng Shang, Yaqin Su, Andong Yan and Qi Zhang)
China Economic Review, Volume 83, 2024, 102101

In this paper, we offer the first comprehensive examination of the economic impacts of China's zero-COVID policy. To achieve this, we utilize an original panel dataset that includes county-level data on daily COVID risk levels.

[Manuscript]  [China COVID Risk Level Dataset]

Abstract
This paper presents an investigation of the economic consequences of the zero-COVID policy implemented by the Chinese government as a pilot experiment in using big data for country management from 2020 to 2022. Our study includes an original county-daily panel data set on the COVID-19 Risk Level issued by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). To measure economic activities, we used satellite data on night lights and PM2.5, and geographical data on population mobility. Our findings indicate that the zero-COVID policy did not result in significant economic loss in 2021. However, in 2022, when the Omicron variant emerged, a stricter zero-COVID policy led to a 30% decline in mobility, a 1.17% decrease in PM2.5 and a 7.7% reduction in night lights. Based on our calculations, China experienced a 3.9% loss in GDP as a consequence of the implementation of the zero-COVID policy in 2022.
Media Coverage
Bloomberg; 
Cost of Zero-Covid: Effects of Anti-contagious Policy on Labor Market Outcomes in China
(with Andong Yan and Jialin Yu)
Journal of Labor Research, 2024
Nomination For The Best Paper Award, 1st International Workshop on the Chinese Development Model , 2022
The Impacts of the Zero-Covid Policy on Academic Performance: Evidence for Primary and Secondary Students in China
(with Yaqin Su, Anping Xia, and Andong Yan)
Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 93, 2024, 101762

Working Papers


Formation and Evolution of Beliefs: Famine Experience and Trust in Neighbors
(with Zhian Hu and Chuanchuan Zhang)
1 / 2
Famine Effect --- High Clan Strength
2 / 2
Famine Effect --- Low Clan Strength

This paper examines how the impact of traumatic experiences on contemporary trust could vary across different initial social capital levels.

[Manuscript]

Abstract
This paper examines how the impact of traumatic experiences on contemporary trust could vary across different initial social capital levels within the context of the Confucian clan and the Great Chinese Famine. Our triple-differences analysis exploit county-level variation in famine intensity, variation in famine exposure based on birth cohorts, and geographic variation in the initial clan culture. We use soil suitability to instrument for famine intensity. We find that traumatic experiences strengthen trust among clan members in areas with high levels of initial social capital. Our findings are robust to model choice and pass placebo tests, and remain stable in a event study model.
Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope
(with Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook et al.)

The present study pushes the boundaries of understanding research reliability by mass reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science outlets.

[Manuscript will be available soon]

Abstract
The present study pushes the boundaries of understanding research reliability by mass reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science outlets. The analysis, involving computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments, reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate (over 85%) of fully computationally reproducible results. Second, excluding very minor errors like missing packages or paths, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,494 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of 71%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses which introduce new data and lower for re-analyses which change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Last, we rely on a many-analysts approach to answer eight additional research questions. Most analyst teams find a negative relationship between replicators’ experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
Crisis Control in Top-down Bureaucracy: Evidence from China’s Zero-Covid Policy
(with Andong Yan and Ziao Zhao)

This study investigates the compliance of local Chinese officials with the zero-Covid policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Manuscript]

Abstract
This study investigates the compliance of local Chinese officials with the zero-Covid policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. By examining biographical data from political elites and using a prefecture-day data set on risk levels – an indicator reflecting the status of zero-Covid policy - we discover a significant impact of prefecture leaders' promotion incentives on their response to COVID-19 outbreaks. Our empirical analysis reveals that leaders with stronger promotion incentives tend to exhibit increased reactions to emerging cases. Evidence shows that such a phenomenon is driven by the different choices of the prefecture leaders facing relatively larger-scale COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, local governors whose jurisdictions are more economically developed tend to enforce more stringent mobility restrictions. However, for prefecture leaders who oversee more developed regions and possess strong promotion incentives, the combined effects of these two factors tend to balance each other out in terms of pandemic response. These results suggest a natural tension between demands for crisis management during the pandemic and routine performance in economic development within the political framework of China.
Governor Press Release Effects on Public Beliefs and Behaviors During a Pandemic
Abstract
This research focuses on how politician’s opinions, provided by local media, shape people’s belief and behavior related to COVID. Specifically, how state governors’ press release (analyzed by natural language processing), covered by local media, impact on people’s social distancing response, belief in conspiracy theory and trust in COVID vaccines. I use geographic variations, specifcally the difference between media market boundaries and state boundaries, as quasi-random exposures to local news and politicians’ press releases. My approach involves collecting data on governors’ press releases and employing Natural Language Processing models such as Topic LDA and COVID-Bert to categorize news topics and measure politicians’ attitudes towards COVID and related policies. Additionally, I leverage multiple waves of survey data from MIT, CMU, and Facebook, providing outcome variables such as individuals’ social distancing behavior, mask usage, and vaccine intent.

Other Publications & Technical Reports


Replication Report: A Comment on Gethin, Martínez- Toledano & Piketty (2022)
(with Olle Hammar )   I4R Discussion Paper 19, 2023

This is a replication report of Gethin, Martínez- Toledano & Piketty (2022) .


[Manuscript]   [Data & Code]

Abstract
Gethin, Martínez-Toledano and Piketty (2022) analyze the long-run evolution of political cleavages using a new database on socioeconomic determinants of voting from approximately 300 elections in 21 Western democracies between 1948 and 2020. They find that, in the 1950s and 1960s, voting for the “left” was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. After that, voting for the “left” has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, while high-income voters have continued to vote for the “right”. In the 2010s, there is a disconnection between the effects of income and education on voting. In this replication, we first conduct a computational reproduction, using the replication package provided by the authors. Second, we do a robustness replication testing to what extent the original results are robust to i) restricting the sample to “core” left and right parties, ii) analyzing the top 80% versus bottom 20%, iii) weighting by population, iv) dropping control variables, and v) using country fixed effects. The main results of the paper are found to be largely replicable and robust.
Currency Usage in Huizhou Region Before and After Taiping Rebellion: Evidence from Account Books
(with Weipeng Yuan )   Jianghai Academic Journal .2023,(01) , in Chinese

By using currency usage data collected from 19 century account book, we find that Taiping Rebellion had a significant impact on the regional economy. However, the usage of foreign silver dollar in Huizhou area rebounded rapidly after the war.


[Manuscript]

Work in Progress


How does Air Pollution Affect Sleep? Survey and Social Media Evidence from the United States
(with Jingyan Guo and Zhuocheng Shang)

"Sleep, that knits up the ravelled sleeve of care. The death of each day's life, sore labour's bath. Balm of hurt minds, chief nourisher in life's great feast... Sleep's the one thing left to us. The one thing they couldn't get their filthy mitts on. Now, they're even grabbing that. Colonising it."
--- Sleep No More (Doctor Who: Season 9, Episode 9)


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